Population cycles of mammals: evidence for a ratio-dependent predation hypothesis

Publication Type:Journal Article
Year of Publication:1992
Authors:Akcakaya, HR
Journal:Ecological Monographs
Volume:62
Pagination:119-142
Date Published:1992
Keywords:Lynx lynx
Abstract:

A mathematical model is developed to predict specific patterns of prey-predator cycles observed in nature with independently estimated parameters. This prey-predator model is based on the concept of "ratio dependence': the trophic functions (functional and numerical responses) are modeled as functions of prey-to-predator ratio rather than as functions of prey density only, as in traditional prey-predator ratio rather than as functions of prey density only, as in traditional prey-predator models. This approach incorporates the concept of interference in a simple way by describing trophic interactions as functions of per capita resources. The parameters of the model are estimated from studies on the biology of cyclic lynx Lynx canadensis and snowshoe hare Lepus americanus populations, rather than by fitting time-series data to the model. Parameters of the model give rise to limit cycles when they are changed in the way they are expected to change from south to north, which is consistent with the observations on the latitudinal patterns in cyclicity. The major quantitative prediction of the model is the cycle period. The period is predicted to be c10 yr, which is the observed period of hare-lynx fluctuations. "

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Scratchpads developed and conceived by (alphabetical): Ed Baker, Katherine Bouton Alice Heaton Dimitris Koureas, Laurence Livermore, Dave Roberts, Simon Rycroft, Ben Scott, Vince Smith