Rabies in urban foxes (Vulpes vulpes) in Britain: the use of a spatial stochastic simulation model to examine the pattern of spread and evaluate the efficacy of different control regimes

Publication Type:Journal Article
Year of Publication:1991
Authors:Smith, GC, Harris, S
Journal:Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London Series B Biological Sciences
Volume:334
Date Published:1991
Keywords:Vulpes vulpes
Abstract:

A spatial stochastic simulation model was produced, based on demographic and other data collected during a long-term study on the urban fox population in Bristol, and fox density data collected from a number of cities in S England. Simulations were then used to evaluate the effects of: varying levels of fox control; changing the size of the control zone; the onset of the rabies epizooty at different times of the year; delay before the commencement of control on the changes of containing the disease. These simulations were run for four cities (Bournemouth and Poole, Bristol, Leicester and the West Midlands conurbation) with different mean fox population densities. The variance in the monthly velocity of the rabies front was greater for heterogeneous fox populations. In cities with high fox densities, low or moderate levels of control were unsuccessful in containing the disease, but these urban areas had the highest rates of success with the highest levels of control. A three-month delay in the commencement of a rabies control campaign on average reduced the change of successfully controlling the disease by 10-20%, although this was higher in lower-density fox populations. Rabies outbreaks in the dispersal period were on average 10% less likely to be contained. Increasing the size of the control zone increased the chances of successfully containing the disease, although this effect was density dependent, so the effect was less in low-density fox populations. Results are discussed in relation to the current rabies contingency plans for British urban areas. "

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